Economic Expectations

OppenheimerFunds, a North American manager who manages about R $ 700 billion in resources, says she felt encouraged with Brazil after meetings with government technicians Michel Temer

Brazil is on the way to growing again and achieving historically low interest rates. Comment is analysts  asset manager OppenheimerFunds , one of the largest investment companies  in the United States, which manages a resource portfolio valued at $ 216 billion, around R $ 700 billion at Friday's exchange (06/01 ).

In commentary published on the institution 'swebsite and signed by Wim Vandenhoeck manager and senior analyst Claudia Castro, Oppenheimer estimates that the tax reforms that have been proposed by the government Michel Temer can promote growth and increase domestic savings.

"We believe that the quality of  management of public accounts currently implemented (by the economic team of President Temer) and monetary policy (conducted by the Central Bank) will lead Brazil to a long-term growth," write the analysts.

In the assessment of asset manager based in New York,  the greatest rigor with public spending and steady fall in inflation this year - expected to return to the central target of 4.5% per year after seven years above this level -  will lead to the authority Brazilian currency the  "most likely" accelerate the pace of  reduction in the basic interest rate (Selic). 

Interest

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) started in October 2016 the process of rate cuts that serves as a reference for the granting of loans in the country. There were two reductions of 0.25 percentage point rate that analysts  OppenheimerFunds  believes should to step up from the next meeting, scheduled to begin next Tuesday (10/01) and will end on Wednesday  (11/01). Currently, the  Selic rate is 13.75% per year.

For  Wim Vandenhoeck and Claudia Castro "s nly with perseverance in strengthening its macroeconomic framework , Brazil will grow and we expect to see real interest rates historically low," the analysts wrote. "Unfortunately," punctuate analysts fund manager, "not There is an easy solution, "they observed, noting the urgency and complexity of the economic and structural reforms adopted by Brazil.

The text explains that the comment was written after meetings between representatives of the fund and members of the government Michel Temer, as well as Brazilian businessmen. After these meetings, the OppenheimerFunds happened to see a more positive scenario pair to Brazil.

Importance of spending ceiling

"The spending cap should be seen as an important first step in generating viable options for economic recovery and growth," the two experts argued.

"In addition to fiscal policy, the Brazilian government has a broad agenda of initiatives aimed at increasing productivity and growth in the medium term, as well as improving the business environment," he argued.

For Oppenheimer, the government has the necessary support to approve the Pension Reform in the National Congress and has made clear to the population the importance of this proposal.

Source: Portal Brazil, with information OppenheimerFunds

 

December closes as best month of 2016 for sale of vehicles

Anfavea

Licensing grew 14.69% compared to November. With this performance, 204,300 automobiles were released to run

The sale of vehicles begins to show signs of recovery. In December, total licensing grew 14.69% compared to November. The result of the month, with 204,300 vehicles released to run in Brazilian streets, was the best monthly performance in 2016.

The data are from the National Association of Manufacturers of Automotive Vehicles (Anfavea) and were released on Thursday (5). They also show that the licenses of the period were led by imported, which grew 26.32%.

Nationals also performed well at the end of last year. In the comparison between November and December, there was increase of 13.23%, with 179.2 thousand vehicles licensed only in the last month of 2016.

Exports also showed favorable numbers. In December alone, 62,900 automobiles were sold abroad - that figure is 10.96% higher than in November. Compared to December 2015, the advance was 36.15%.

Sales on the rise

By type of vehicle, there was progress in all segments. Those classified as automobiles registered an increase of 14.14%. The list goes on with light commercials (17.55%), trucks (17.13%), buses (9.34%).

Source: Portal Brazil, with information Anfavea

 

http://www.brasil.gov.br/economia-e-emprego/2017/01/producao-industrial-cresce-0-2-entre-outubro-e-novembro

Industrial production grows 0.2% between October and November

IBGE

Almost all industry categories recorded favorable numbers from month to month

Influenced mainly by vehicles and trucks, industrial production showed a positive result in November. In comparison with October, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the indicator advanced 0.2%.

André Macedo, one of the people responsible for the IBGE survey, explained that the data has different characteristics from what was observed before November. "There is a predominance of positive results in terms of activity and economic categories," he said.

With the exception of the category of semi-durable and non-durable products, which fell by 0.5%, all others advanced between October and November. Capital goods, which are heavily tied to investments because they are items that make others, grew by 2.5%.

An advance in the production of capital goods is important for the economy because they mean greater confidence in the future, since at some point these products, when they are in operation in the market, will lead to an increase in productivity and production in the country.

Favorable industry performance

Also in the blue were intermediate goods (0.5%), consumer goods (0.1%) and durable goods (4%). The items classified as durable are refrigerators, stoves and other appliances and products that usually require financing and that only deteriorate with persistent use for long period of time.

Source: Portal Brazil, with information IBGE