More confidence

Data and research by entities and institutions show that the country is more confident in the resumption of the economy

Consumers, industrialists and traders started the year with confidence on the rise. Research by entities and institutes suggests that the scenario is different compared to the beginning of 2016. Brazilians are more optimistic not only about the economy, but about the company itself and the labor market.

The first effects of the economic reforms proposed by the government, the fall in interest rates and the prospect of ever lower inflation injected a new mood in consumption. Financial market projections corroborate these confidence surveys, show that the country is growing again this year and that this expansion intensifies from 2018.

Research by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) shows that the indicator that measures this optimism among consumers grew 6.2 points from December to January reaching 79.3 points. Similar to a thermometer, the higher the score on that index, the greater the confidence.

"The rise of confidence in January is related to expectations of an improvement in the economic environment with the fall in inflation and the acceleration of the reduction of interest rates," explained Viviane Seda Bittencourt, Coordinator of the Consumer Survey.

In the comparison of the results by income range, there was an increase in confidence at all levels. The monthly family income group between R $ 2,100.01 and R $ 4,800.00 was the one that contributed the most to the advance of the indicator, registered an increase of 11.3 points and reached the highest level since January 2015 (83 points).

High Retail

Faced with more optimistic consumers, retail begins to prepare for a resumption of sales in 2017. In January, industry confidence grew 18.4% compared to the same month last year. This was the seventh consecutive high of the indicator. The data comes from the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC).

The three components of the indicator, which weighted reach the final number of confidence, also registered significant increases compared to January 2016. What measures the current conditions of the entrepreneur jumped 45.2% to 58.5 points.

The expectation indicator, which shows what the entrepreneur expects of the future and for the country, grew 18.3% and reached 142.8 points. The indicator that measures the prospect of making new investments ahead registered a rise of 5.3%, rising to 85.8 points.

Strongest industry in 2017

The National Confederation of Industry (CNI), in a recent survey, also noted that its sector was not isolated from this movement of increased optimism. After a turbulent period in 2016, the expectation is of industrial production growth.

According to the research of the entity that calculates the Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index, optimism rose 37.3% in the comparison between January and the same month last year. In the thermometer that measured this confidence, the mark went from 36.5 points to 50.1.

All this movement can still be observed by other indicators. The real, in the last 12 months, strengthened against the dollar. The price of the currency went from R $ 4.0843 on January 27 of last year to R $ 3,151 this Friday (27) - a drop of 22.85% in the period.

The main indicator of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (BM & FBovespa) has also accompanied the return of optimism. In January alone, the Ibovespa rose 9.72%. In the last year, the high is 71.06%.