The Fiscal Prisma becomes monthly disclose the ranking "short-term Podium" of the participating institutions (ranking of the monthly forecasts). The Podium is a planning system of the participating institutions of the Tax Prisma expectations system, based on the success rate and frequency of sending their projections.

The planning is performed based on equations that specify penalties for each institution, considering the deviation of its projections for the occurrence value and regular participation of the institution in Prisma.

That is, the more regular and more accurate the institution in their predictions, the lower the penalty and, consequently, better her position in the ranking.

Understand

The Podium report lists the location and names of the three institutions with the best forecasts for each fiscal variable in the last six months (short term) and displays the percentage of error in the forecasts of each institution. Moreover, it is disclosed the error average percentage of institutions that also contributed to the variables, but did not reach the three places of the podium in the period.

The error percentage indicates how much the forecast of the institution deviated from the amount realized on average during this period, taking into account the magnitude of the variable.

For example, if the error percentage is 10% for an institution that participated in every month of the period, then the average size of the monthly forecast error of the institution was a tenth of the amount realized.

It should be noted that the error percentage of each institution includes the penalties for not sending projections as set out in Methodological Note, available on Prism website:  www.spe.fazenda.gov.br/prisma-fiscal/prisma-fiscal-nota -metodologica-consolidada.pdf