After a tough speech Central Bank against high prices and promise to bring inflation to something around 4.5% , the financial market began to revise their best projections for the cost of living in 2017.

According to the Focus Bulletin , aweekly publication in which the BC meets the expectations of about 100 analysts, the forecast for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) next year fell from 5.50% to 5.43%.

This was the first drop in expectations after they were six weeks frozen at 5.50%. The Central Bank under Ilan Goldfajn command has been emphatic: wants to bring inflation to the target of 4.5%, a figure considered by the Central Bank as doable.

The forecast BC, which appears in the last Quarterly Inflation Report , one of the most important documents of the institution, provides a lower cost of living than expected by the market to date, projects an IPCA of 4.7%.

Inflation within the confines

The document also makes clear that it lowers the possibility of the IPCA break the tolerance limits next year and stay above 6.5% - a value considered the ceiling for change in the price index.

In the assessment of BC, the possibility of this limit is broken is only 18%. This risk was higher until March, when the odds were 22% of the IPCA is above the tolerance limit.

The market starts projecting lower inflation also in 2016. Between last week and the previous one, the expectation for the IPCA this year fell from 7.29% to 7.27% - a movement that strengthens the assessment that analysts have confidence the current Central Bank.

Among the analysts who hit more predictions, group called the TOP 5, the forecast for the IPCA this year fell from 7.29% to 7.18%; for 2017 is 5.30%.